Cutler, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

001
FXUS66 KHNX 250505
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1005 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest Wednesday through Friday,
especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park.

2. Dry lightning is possible in developed storms due to a
probability less than 30 percent for greater than 0.10" of rain.

3. Long string of cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy
conditions through the week, with some fire weather concerns.

4. Minimal change in the overall weather pattern with a slow warming
trend going into the weekend. A return to triple digits across the
San Joaquin Valley between next Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another pleasant day across Central California as we experience
below normal afternoon highs. While not record levels, highs in
the lower to mid 90s expected across the region through this
coming weekend. Until the East Coast High (Heat Dome) breaks-
down, the West will maintain the trough with weak pieces of
energy passing through the area. Therefore, cool dry with enough
lift, instability and moisture to fire-up convection across the
Sierra Nevada this afternoon. Probability of Thunder still
around 30% this afternoon with chance of a wetting rain (0.10 of
an inch) at less than 30%, during the same time. This will lead
toward another afternoon of dry thunderstorms across the West.
While a shift toward warming temperatures is indicated, it may
be short-lived as long-range ensemble hint toward the
introduction of another trough pattern.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 95 degree does not
surpass the 50% threshold until Monday. Therefore, high
confidence in lower to mid 90s will exist through the weekend
before a warm trend starts. While PoE of 95 degree peak out at
70% to 90% on Tuesday, PoE for 100 degrees at the same time
falls to less than 20%. Therefore, Central California will
struggle to triple digits this week and may not hold-on to it
next week. By Wednesday, PoE of 95 degrees takes a downward
trend and continues into Thursday. 90S across the San Joaquin
Valley may be the name of the game for most of the next seven
days.

In addition to the persist below normal temperatures,
Probability of Thunder expected to fire-up convection over the
Sierra Nevada Crest for the next several days. While the
probability of thunder will range from 10% to 30%, the higher
percentages will exist near Yosemite. The lower range will
spread into Tulare County with less than 10% over the Kern
County Mountains through Saturday. Probabilities still exist on
Sunday, yet, at much lower values. Furthermore, due to the lack
of significant moisture surging into the region, precipitation
from convection will remain limited. Dry lightning will be a
threat over the next two to three days as elevated fire weather
concern exist from Fresno County northward through Yosemite
today and Friday. Will expect more of the same in the near
future until the break-down of the East Coast High Pressure
Area.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update

VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin valley for the next
24 hours. Slight chance to a chance (10%-30%) of thunderstorms
will exist across the Sierra Nevada Crest from Yosemite to
Tulare County starting from 18Z Friday until 05Z Saturday.
Local winds of to G20kts are expected along the Interstate-5
corridor through 12Z Friday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public......Molina
Aviation....EW

weather.gov/hanford